Pressure Mounts on Starting Rotation

The great news keeps pouring in from Clearwater.  Chase Utley's knee discomfort suddenly became a mysterious (serious?) knee problem that could actually get worse with surgery.  There's no timetable for his return.  Domonic Brown's out 4-6 weeks with a broken hand.  And now just days before the start of this hyper-anticipated season, the Phillies have also lost Brad Lidge to shoulder soreness that just won't go away.  Oh yeah, he's out indefinitely too.

This is a talented, veteran team with a wealth of experienced players.  Injuries are neither new nor worrisome to the men behind the clubhouse doors.  But when an already questionable lineup loses both its best hitter and brightest star and a shaky bullpen loses arguably its most important reliever, a sizeable void must be filled.  Yet the added pressure hasn't been heaped on the shoulders of the other hitters or relievers -- rather, it's been placed on the members of the Phillies' Fab Five.

The starting rotation has always been the key to the 2011 team.  Before spring training, conventional wisdom suggested that such a dynamite rotation coupled with more consistent offensive output and a decent bullpen made the Phillies a truly formidable opponent -- the pack of aces had a capable supporting cast to work with.  Even on the rare clunker performance from one of the starters, the well-rested bullpen could pick up the slack and the offense would keep the team in the game.

How do you replace this?

Now, the starting five aren't just expected to dominate -- they MUST dominate.  And while it's reasonable to think they'll be just as filthy as advertised, their margin for error is razor-thin.  Less-than-brilliant starts will loom even larger with the absence of a trustworthy 6th and 7th inning pitcher and potentially a closer, depending on how well Madson and Contreras adjust to long-term work in that role.  The offense will depend on drastically improved production from Jimmy Rollins and Raul Ibanez and the ability of the 5th hitter du jour to protect Ryan Howard on nights the Phillies need to win a slugfest.  And this is before taking into account potential regression for an aging Placido Polanco or a less than career year from Carlos Ruiz.

The Phillies gambled that signing Cliff Lee rather than addressing other holes on the roster would more than compensate for those problems.  And who would argue with them for assembling a super rotation?  It's a real-life fantasy team, and as we've seen in recent years, pitching and defense (and super-lucky hitting -- that would be you, San Francisco Giants) wins championships.

But as smaller concerns about the lineup and bullpen continue to balloon into larger ones, the Phillies have lost their insurance policy on the starting rotation.  In fact, the opposite has happened -- rather than ensuring the success of the 2011 season, the starting five must now insure against a season of disappointment.

Things can always get worse.