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| The Phillies need a big year from #11 in 2011. |
How could the first post on this blog be on anything BUT baseball? I can't envision any other way to start, so I'll throw a "first pitch" of sorts with my take on the 2011 Phillies.
I can't seem to shake a feeling of skepticism heading into the season. While the Cliff Lee megadeal was about the coolest FA signing since Jim Thome, it did nothing to address the hitting problems from a year ago. The Phillies are probably the best-equipped team in baseball to win low-scoring games, and even without Jayson Werth's bat behind Ryan Howard, the offense should still have a fine year. On paper, that is. With the rash of injuries and the combined season-long slump among the Phillies' offensive stars in 2010, it would seem 2011 must bring better run production. But by the end of 2010, Rollins, Utley, Howard, Victorino, Ibanez and the gang were relatively healthy and playing every day -- yet the run-producing woes continued. Runners were left stranded in scoring position when a simple groundball out or flyout would have brought them home. Every left-handed specialist to toe the rubber against the Phils completely shut down a healthy Utley and Howard. Literally every one. And as the Phillies discovered, not even their vaunted H2O rotation could carry them with such an anemic offense. Of course, a return to normal production (compared to career averages) for the Phillies' hitters would make these concerns irrelevant -- and fans have every reason to think that should happen. But if 2010 was an indicator of the first effects of declining skills, left-handed hitters who can't quite adjust to left-handed pitching, or an inability to stay healthy, the Phillies could be in real trouble. The bats will have to speak loudly in 2011 to reveal the answers.
The absence of a true right-handed power threat in the lineup is definitely a concern. Shane Victorino and Placido Polanco are simply contact hitters with occasional power who can run the bases. Ben Francisco is unproven as a starter. Carlos Ruiz, though a surprisingly clutch hitter with pop, can't be counted on for more than 10-15 homers let alone 20 or more. The dark horse in my opinion is Jimmy Rollins. The '07 NL MVP version was as dynamic and dangerous as any hitter in baseball, with a .296 average, 30 homers and 94 runs batted in as a leadoff hitter. Rollins hit 21 longballs in '09, but has hit just 40 total home runs in the three seasons since his '07 campaign. Charlie Manuel has never really relinquished the idea of Rollins as his leadoff hitter, and may still insist on having him atop the lineup. But with no real alternative to complementing left-handers Chase Utley and Ryan Howard (not to mention lefty-swingers Raul Ibanez and Domonic Brown) with right-handed power, Manuel may be forced to experiment with Rollins in the middle of the lineup. J-Roll obviously enjoys swinging for the fences (and popping out, especially in those just-make-contact scenarios), and has historically hit for more power batting right-handed. If Jimmy gets a shot as a middle-of-the-order man AND has a year at least reminiscent of his 2007 season, the Phillies' offense could be as good as any in baseball.
I feel like I'm just getting warmed up here...but alas, time dictates otherwise. More to come on this and many other topics in the future.
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